Ohio State University STATS 1350 Final Review

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Final Review • Chapter 17 (Thinking about Chance) – Understand the meaning of the term “random” within a statistics context • Random ≠ Haphazard • A phenomenon is random if individua... l outcomes are uncertain but there is nonetheless a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions. Random is the kind of order that emerges only in the long run. • – Understand what pro The probability of any outcome of a random phenomenon is a number between 0 and 1 that describes the proportion of times the outcome would occur in a very long series of repetitions. • If an outcome has probability = 0, it NEVER occurs • If an outcome has probability = 1, it ALWAYS happens Note: Probability is defined only in the ‘long run’ (this is what we mean by ‘a very long series of repetitions’; more on this later!) bability refers to – Know that probabilities range from 0 to 1 – Understand the myths about chance behavior (i.e., what is the myth of the Law of Averages, and what does that law actually tell us? What is the myth of short-run regularity?) – Understand what personal probability refers to • Coming up with a probability based on one’s own opinion or anecdotal evidence. • Not based on data. Not scientific. • Examples: – “I’ve got a 0.9 probability of passing this exam.” – “I have a 20% chance of finding a parking spot today” – “My team has a 90% chance of winning because I am wearing red socks” Chapter 18 (Probability Models) – What is a probability model? Event: a collection of outcomes. Example – throwing an even number on a die roll (what are the outcomes in this event?) A probability model for a random phenomenon describes all of the possible outcomes and says how to assign probabilities to any collection of outcomes • What is the probability of throwing an even number on a roll? – What are the rules of probability? You should know these rules and how to apply them. • Any probability is a number between 0 and 1 [Show More]

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